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将于北京时间6月30日在明尼阿波利斯举行的ufc on espn 3迎来了一场全新的头条大战。

原本被安排作为头条主赛的泰伦-伍德利（tyron woodley）与罗比-劳勒（robbie lawler）的次中量级二番战由于前者受伤退赛而被迫取消。于是ufc官方决定将原定于在ufc23🧵9中进行的佛朗西斯-纳干诺（francis ngannou） vs 多斯-桑托斯（junior dos santos）的重量级对决调整为当晚的新🤾头条大战。

佛朗西斯-纳干诺目前战绩为13胜3负，其中9次ko，4次降💒服获🤍胜，保持了100%的终结率。在去年初挑战时任重量级冠军米欧奇失败，又令人失望地判定输给了德瑞克-刘易斯（derrick lewis）后，这位法籍喀麦隆猛将重新找回了状态。他先是🎉在去年11月于北京举行的ufc格斗之夜141中45秒ko了柯蒂斯-布莱兹（curtis blaydes），又在今年2月的uf🕠c on esp🖊n首秀中用时26秒秒杀了前冠军凯恩🔵-维拉斯奎兹（cain velasquez） ，官方排名重回重量级第2位。🕒

多斯-桑托🤺斯目前战绩为21胜5负，其中15🗑次ko，1👝次降服获胜。他的境况与纳干诺非常相似，在2017年5月时也挑战了时任重量级冠军米欧奇，但在首回合即被tko终结。之后由于药🤤检问题，桑托斯休战了一年的时间。去年7月回归后，这位前重量级冠军在9个月的时间里连续赢下了3场🥤比赛，包括连续tko终结了澳洲新星泰-图瓦萨（tai tuivasa）以🥭及德瑞克-刘易斯，官方排名已经回升到了第3位。

ufc on esp🏌n 3将于北京时间6月30日在明尼阿波利斯举行。📯当晚的联合主赛将是德👊米安-玛雅（demia🧉n maia） vs 安东尼-罗科-马丁（anthony rocco martin）的🐸次中量级对阵。（ufc中国 大拿）

• there isn’t any evidence to support president trump’s assertion that three to five million illegal votes were cast in the 2016 presidential election. but there is one study that has been interpreted to suggest it is at least possible. it found that between 32, 000 and 2. 8 million noncitizen voters might have fraudulently cast ballots in the 2008 presidential election. the study, based on a survey of 38, 000 people after that election, has been under fire since it was published in 2014. now even its authors concede that it probably overstated the amount of noncitizen voting. “the estimates are likely incorrect,” jesse richman, one of the of the study and a political science professor at old dominion university, said in an email exchange on wednesday. in a post online, he also said that the findings do not support mr. trump’s contention that millions cast ballots illegally. mr. richman still maintains that some small percentage of noncitizens vote in american elections. but the debate over this study has moved on. it’s no longer about whether millions of illegal votes were cast, but whether there’s any evidence for noncitizen voting at all. the study’s bold claims fell apart because of something called response error: the possibility that people taking a survey don’t answer a question correctly — in this case, a question about being american citizens. there is always a tiny amount of response error in surveys. respondents might not understand the question. or they might understand it, but mark the wrong answer by mistake, if the survey is . an interviewer, if there is one, could accidentally record the wrong answer. such errors usually aren’t a problem large enough to change the results of a survey. but both the survey and the question posed by researchers were unusual. the survey — the cooperative congressional election study — was huge, with 38, 000 respondents in 2008. and the group in question — noncitizens — was very small, just 339 of those respondents. the problem is that even a tiny amount of response error among the 38, 000 respondents could have been enough to contaminate the results of the tiny group of noncitizens. imagine, for instance, that 99. 9 percent of people respond to the survey’s citizenship question correctly. in such a big survey, even that high success rate would still imply that there were 38 respondents who answered incorrectly — enough to make up a big chunk of the tiny pool of 339 noncitizen respondents. if those 38 misreported noncitizens had indeed voted, then suddenly it would look as if 10 percent of noncitizens voted. this critique could explain all of the noncitizen voting observed in the study. critics of the study — stephen ansolabehere, a harvard political scientist, samantha luks, a statistician at yougov, and brian schaffner, a political scientist at the university of massachusetts amherst — were able to marshal evidence strongly consistent with that possibility, because of the survey’s unusual design: thousands of voters are in subsequent elections. that allowed the study’s critics to check whether people were consistent about their answer on the citizenship answer from year to year. if the people were consistent, they were probably noncitizens. if voters were inconsistent, it would be a sign that the category was contaminated by the tiny number of voters who misreported their citizenship. there was not much consistency. between 2010 and 2012, 20 voters switched from being citizens to noncitizens (an extremely unlikely transition) and 36 others switched from noncitizens to citizens (a more common transition, but one reported at a far greater rate than typically occurs). these shifting answers strongly bolster the theory that many of the respondents logged as noncitizens had responded in error. but most important, among the 85 respondents who said they were noncitizens in both 2010 and 2012 — those most likely to really be noncitizens — none had voted in the 2010 midterm elections. the critics concluded that “the likely percent of noncitizen voters in recent u. s. elections is 0. ” in a response published in october, mr. richman and his colleagues did not contest the finding that measurement error probably exaggerated the number of noncitizen voters. “the response error issues they focus on may have biased our numbers,” mr. richman said in an email to the new york times on wednesday. mr. richman and his colleagues have not estimated a new range of possible noncitizen voting. instead, the october response sought only to rebut the notion that there was no noncitizen voting. they argued that measurement error couldn’t explain all of the people who said they were noncitizens and voted. when it came to hard evidence immune to the measurement error critique, mr. richman and his found one validated 2012 voter who had indicated not being a citizen in both the 2010 and 2012 surveys. but the same noncitizen had indicated in the survey that he or she was not registered to vote. the determination that he or she was a voter was based on voter records: the respondents to the survey were matched to a voter registration file. it is possible that this noncitizen was erroneously matched to the voter file. the matching process is good but imperfect, and becomes harder with less information — like the absence of a specific address or date of birth. that the respondent said he or she wasn’t registered certainly raises the possibility that the match was wrong. “i haven’t seen any evidence that i would say shows that any noncitizens vote,” mr. schaffner said. “that doesn’t mean that the rate is exactly zero. but it does mean that it’s frequency that we can’t even measure it with traditional methods. ”
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